Tuesday, March 11, 2008



The American Media, lead by the punditry, will not declare the 2008 Democratic Nomination Race over, because they do not want it to be. The story line that Hillary Clinton has made a comeback or that the race is tied is a fantasy. The Fall of 2007 saw Sen. Clinton universally cast as the all but assured Democratic nominee. She held commanding leads in the polls, in endorsements, in assumptions that she could out fundraise any other candidates by hope crushing amounts, in the support of the Democratic” Establishment”, and had the incredibly popular Bill Clinton waiting in the wings. It was, to even a cursory observer, a for sure sure thing.

Sen. Clinton victories, by 8% in Ohio and 2% in Texas, were seen as a comeback, re-starting her campaign, people taking another look at Barack Obama, a sign of her resiliency, and it’s a brand new race. Yet, Sen. Clinton, after her dramatic victory in New Hampshire, lead Sen. Obama both of these states by any average of 25% in Texas and 30% in Ohio. How does a candidate who lost massive support in both those states become the new”Comeback Kid”? The trend of Obama narrowing leads dramatically, has taken place in EVERY contest. This trend has happened in California, New Hampshire, Nevada, Missouri, and now Pennsylvania. Yet, nowhere has this been the opposite, where Sen. Clinton has reversed a wide Obama lead in the polls and defeated him. It does not exist. Therefore, if one candidate continues to grow support while the other loses support or stagnates, how is this tie? Hillary Clinton’s campaign has demonstrated the ability to lose large swaths of support from voters who six months ago supported her, yet has not gained them back, nor forged new supporters, this is a comeback kid?

I believe most knowledgble and independent observers would agree that a Joe Biden campaign, Chris Dodd candidacy, or any Presidential aspirations would have died after the 11 straight Obama victories, the record-shattering fundraising, and the second place finisher having to place 5 million of their own money in their flagging campaign, the mathematical impossibility of taking the lead in delegates, and equal difficulty in taking the lead in popular votes would have been put out of misery. If this happened to anyone but a Clinton the Press would have declared that candidacy no longer viable. The Media do not want this race to be over, why?

If the truth about this race were accepted the fun, excitement, and even greater historic dimensions of this race would end. The media, print and electronic outlets are abuzz with talk of super delegates, dramatic Al Gore entrances to the race, Michigan/Florida do-overs, will the Clintons play the race card again, will Obama go negative, all leading to more TV show appearances, travel, excitement, but it is not real, it is manufactured. Can the media’s role in keeping this race alive impact the race? Absolutely, which makes it even more fascinating to them. I am a saying it is a conspiracy? Of course not. It is more akin to mass hypnosis. Yet, it does not change the fact that the only way Obama loses is a major mistake or scandal on his part, or Bill and Hillary Clinton blow-up the Democratic party, alienating many in the party, to”gain”the nomination. The facts say this race is over, and I thought the media only reported the facts

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The Mystery said...
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